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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  May 10, 2016 6:00am-9:01am EDT

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ginn that primary season. and "squawk box" begins right there are journalists eating now. ♪ your love is lifting me reports that they wrote because higher ♪ >> announcer: live from new york they said they'd eat something. where business never sleeps, another guy eating a bucket of this is "squawk box." bolts. ben white was supposed to do >> i can tell -- i can tell, you something because they said donald trump would never be the are the man. good morning, welcome to "squawk nominee of the republican party. box" here on cnbc. there are people eating a lot of i'm scott walker along with joe crow. i don't know what determinations concern, kayla tausche, becky you can definitively make. and andrew are off today. the dow opened higher by 107 >> and there were reports about john mccain not being a war points. s&p by 12. hero. >> now, mccain is even coming nasdaq looking decent at this hour as well. out -- a gain of a little bit more than >> the end was -- >> this guy's going to come 20. overnight, asia, new data around, too, don't you think, paul ryan? >> i think he'll come around showing consumer was steady. probably on thursday. but i think both of them have a the shanghai composite was flat. lot on the other. the hang seng gained about 0.5%. i don't think trump wants to go there without -- you know, i meanwhile in japan, the nikkei don't think he would say don't raising by 2%. chair the convention. and after that, the prime you need votes wherever you can minister said that the get them, if you're trump.
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government will intervene. as far as ryan goes, i don't european equities all in the know, do you really want to be green as well. take a look at oil prices this morning. traders say crude stockpiles likely rose last week for the bill kristol. just endorse hillary, it's okay. fifth straight week offsetting supply disruptions related to just endorse her. that wildfire in canada. call it what it is. stop dancing around. and some situations where else. well, it is primary day, there's w tchlwti high are. voters in nebraska and west virginia heading to the polls. on more on what to expect, let's >> canadian oil may be back online later this week. here are other big stories get to john harwood. we're watching. facebook is in hot water over >> donald trump is the bias allegations. presumptive republican nominee, nobody cares that he was going on the record saying the vulnerable in nebraska that that republican race. social network deliberately most of the attention is focused on west virginia. censors political sensitive bernie sanders has been holding -- if you look at the articles. polls, he'ds holding a lead of saying facebook is a platform for people and perspectives from six points over hillary clinton in average of the polls. across the political spectrum. and bernie sanders does not have stock is up in premarket trading the ability to catch her in delegates barring some massive about 0.5%. shift in superdelegate which is >> what's, it's a shocker! is not going to happen.
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everybody is focused on the what, at facebook. my word. general election. you have donald trump having really. knock me down by a feather. >> 1.4 billion people on that chris christie to head his team. news service now. chris christie is somebody with >> they're getting the news the potential to be shrekked as that -- what does it lean vice president on donald trump's forward? no, that's us. ticket. you have the continuing drama >> lean in. >> lean in. between donald trump and leaders >> this is lean in. of the republican party over >> at both places it's lean what's going to happen at the convention. and beyond, in terms of left, isn't it, sort of? coordination of resources. it's media. >> okay. all right. paul ryan said yesterday, he'd all right. as long as you know. >> as long as you know what to step aside if donald trump wants expect. >> and what party they support. him to abandon the chairmanship >> you're on facebook, aren't you? >> no i'm not really not. of the republican convention. >> you're on instagram. i agree with joe. that is not something that >> not really. donald trump wants to happen. >> you are but you're not the reason is, donald trump really? needs to do a better job of >> you're not on facebook. uniting the republican party. >> no. in modern politics if you don't >> it's okay to admit it it, are you on facebook? >> no, no, i'm not. have a united party you cannot i'm thinking about joining win. in the most "wall street myspace. is that still around? journal" poll, donald trump and you know what -- >> i was telling you about hillary clinton were tried 40-40. snapchat before the show and how she had a much higher support of that works. there's news on snapchat, too. democrats than he did among
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>> we're going to do that. republicans that's buy she had a >> you know why i'm in such a double digit lead. donald trump has to knit good mood, because i have stocks together the coalition as his first order of business. to watch. >> i like the idea of democrats you know who does the stocks bet supporting trump and republicans than me. that have switched to hillary, you. you know what's happening and too. that's a hard number to poll why you're doing it? >> i do. for, isn't it, john? >> you know we're going to be >> well, in our poll, the number doing -- of republicans with a favorable >> yeah. >> -- >> yeah. opinion of hillary clinton was >> on cue. something like 3%. >> that puts me in a really good the number of democrats with a mood. it's much more interesting to favorable opinion of donald listen to those stories. trump was about 8%. but both had extremely high with music. >> why is that your music? is that just always -- >> don't even -- it's not -- unfavorables. >> ahh. there isn't much cross party >> i know. voting. there's some people fluid in these kids. these kids. identity. but used to be you had a lot >> really. more conservatives who were >> the judge? >> you're getting warm. democrats. liberals who are republic danre. >> okay. elsewhere in the news -- >> ever heard of that show the and that fueled split ticket voting. >> you said that donald trump people's sport? >> yes. i know that's where your name needs to do a better job of comes from. that's the song. unitinged republican party >> if you ever wonder why -- around him.
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you can make an argument that the republican party needs to >> credit suisse is protesting a start rallying around donald loss. after declines in investment trump realizing he's the banking units. nominee. shares are trading about 5% >> well different sides of the higher and that's taking much of same coin. it's the same issue. the european equity market with but republicans have to make a it. remember, there was a day choice. there are a lot of republicans earlier this year when you could post a profit loss and those who have reservations about european banks would go sliding donald trump and his fitness to be president. to the tune of 10, 15, sometimes they're going to make a decision, "a," is he viable. 20%. the shares down about 42% in the can he win the election? last year. if they don't think he can win the firm's ceo spoke with cnbc the election, number one priority is going to be earlier this morning. protecting the house and senate >> february 4th, which is the majority. they're going to have to make a last time we spoke was a scary time. threshold question of "a," can january was simply the worst january in history of markets. they live with him, "b," can how i was speaking after four weeks did it affect us. of that. and they've got a seat majority since then, february was bad. right now, republicans are better than january. march was better than february. defending most of the seats and april was better than march. so we're clearly on an improving especially there's seven of them trend. >> an improving trend. that obama won twice.
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investors will take that. in the house, that's extremely on the economic calendar, we'll difficult to do. it's unlikely the democrats will get wholesale trade and jobs do it. if donald trump gets blown out by hillary clinton that becomes opens and labor training survey a possibility. >> do you think that ryan by known as jolts. friday is endorsing jump, john? norwegian cruise line will >> i would be surprised if he report reports before and after does it that quickly. i would expect that paul ryan the close. who feels strong institutional disney and electronic arts. loyalty to his party, when i joe. >> in the first half, i'm going interviewed him a few weeks ago to do this one. >> there's no theme music for and asked him about this, when you? >> no theme music. he was going to eventually solarcity reporting a wider than support the nominee given expected first quarter loss. trump's divergence from some of it's all the way down to 18. of his views, he said, look, i'm not just representing myself, surged more than 50%. i'm representing my party. the company is slashing its i think those institutional forecast for solar panels. loyalties are ultimately going stocks falling more than 60% to bring him in line. i'd be surprised if he does it from the 52-week high. that quickly, especially after some of this back and forth over and gas p is reporting a loss f where donald trump is on tax policy. >> i hope there's not -- it the fifth straight month. the retailer continues to would look like he folded too struggle with weak demand at easily. all of this posturing. i get posturing is part of banana republic and old navy politics. so a different side to the same
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stores. and insvensense reporting fourth coin. unless it's those coins that quarter earnings. it feet forecasts. hillary used -- remember those primary wins. revenue 20%. >> nice segue, very good. >> weren't there like eight in a and this is the maker of motion row that came up for her? tracking sensors in the iphone 6 i liked. bernie keeps winning these and samsung galaxy phones. states and it's a foregone conclusion that she's in. >> have you ever heard of that how do you win those company? >> i have not. superdelegates? they sign on because of -- how i understand, sort of. does that work, john, or is that not really, though. seeing it falling 30% since the too long of an issue. >> look at that name, clinton. start of the year motion sensing -- that carries some weight in the >> i've never heard of it either. party. >> certainly does. >> no. i would have said, clearly -- we have mark penton who did a >> yeah. >> definitely. >> here we go, this is what we're waiting for, maestro. surprising poll. clinton 4.5% wiggle room. music, please. here we go kayla. what was the other guy's name we're in the media business. that would bring the people out? it should be a great six months, dovn don't you think? >> doug llewellyn. >> a lot more. showing signs of optimism.
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we'll have details. rusty the bailiff. >> all the people are guilty. plus last week on "squawk box" most people in courts are, they wouldn't be there. why, do we have a presumption of berkshire ceo. innocence? >> i don't know. not in this country. >> sotheby, auction house, fell and valeant responds. we'll show you that straight ahead. ♪ ♪ you're not gonna watch it! ♪ and off to a strong start helped by rising sales in hong kong. hertz posting a offset lower pricing in industry by cutting costs. the company is backing its earnings forecast for the year. bill ackman's pershing square reportedly selling 800 million shares of zoetis. last week, ackman told clients pershing's portfolio was rising. >> i don't think the bongo is
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used anymore. if your kids say they want to learn how to play the bongos, don't you try to say how about piano. >> or if you're a parent that -- >> did you hear now good the person -- is that one guy moving that quickly on this song? >> you don't think the whole thing is an electronic -- >> yeah, it sounds like something previously recorded on a deboard. >> i don't think this is like john williams. we've got to get you a theme song, over the next couple of days i'm going to be here. i'm going to try to come up with something. the theme from "s.w.a.t." maybe -- >> digressing a little bit -- paul quinn, remember him? >> i do. this morning, the futures --
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♪ mean one mr. grinch >> that's a good one. >> it's a little seasonal. >> cute. you can play darth vader. >> it's not even christmas and we're playing that. up 113. it started really in europe. much better tone in europe this morning. i notice that the german bund is ♪ no, you're not gonna watch it! ♪ 14 basis points. 114 on the dow. ♪ we can't let you download on the goooooo! ♪ s&p up 13. nasdaq up 23. the ten-year, people are talking ♪ you'll just have to miss it! about record lows again this ♪ yeah, you'll just have to miss it! ♪ psycycle cycle. here's the dollar which has not ♪ we can't let you download... been quite as strong. uh, no thanks. i have x1 from xfinity so... now, we worry about a strong dollar. now, we worry about -- it hasn't don't fall for directv. been as weak. xfinity lets you download your shows from anywhere. now, we worry about a weak i used to like that song. dollar.
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the yen, it's a two-month low. at 106 for a while. finally, gold. i don't know whether this is say ♪ long term loan or if they end up making beaucoup dollars on this. >> maybe he did. all right. got a move from -- you can see it there, in the last six months -- >> it's 8% in a flat market. >> i know. is it going to be 16, 30%? i don't know. >> better than anywhere else. >> we'll see. welcome back, some we'll see if the market goes any interesting data out this morning after a year in decline. the u.s. ceo optimism has had a higher. marginal rebound. despite market volume difficult, >> do you guys do that on this american ceos forecast a show or what? relatively stable environments >> we could. for the remainder of 2016. why what happened? >> dropped 40 last night. 17 in overtime. they're trailing behind their did you see that? >> i haven't seen it, no. asian counterparts. >> do you know who he is? wpo the young president's organization is an exclusive >> why -- are you asking me? cnbc partner with 23,000
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are you confused on who is in today and who isn't? in political news, venture executives worldwide. >> u.s. equity futures at this capital investor peter thiel hour have been in positive territory. still looked like and in the green with the dow up 104 points. listed as trump delegate in for more on what to expect, global strategic at jpmorgan. california. paypal previously supported rand paul's presidential bids. along with dennis debuescher. we had noted that he's of strong libertarian roots. >> i see joe looking they in this election, you don't know alreadynounced -- who's voting for someone, versus who's voting purely against someone. there's a lot of people, >> no. obviously, we talked about it >> gentlemen. here. let's talk markets. maybe trump wouldn't be your we have some relatively quiet first pick, but there's a global activity today. we're out of the woods at least huge -- clinton, there's a huge for now, right, david? >> i think we are. never trump contingent. it's a huge dynamic. i thinkjobs report gave us >> it's going to be hard to read a glimpse that data is under throughout until people go to the ballot, go to vote. pressure. this morning, had you numbers >> what we also talked about out of europe, it looks like
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before the show was what can you industrial production, although it started the year strong has say definitively about anything tailed off. overall, we're seeing more of the same. it continues to be a muddle through it. >> dennis, are we now in this perverse cycle where the weaker the u.s. data are the better for the dollar? and the less we worry about divergence and the less we worry about a stronger dollar hurting other companies. >> yes, i would say, to a point. i would step back and say there's such a discretion between volume difficult and volatility. from the u.s. point of view which is part of the reason why the u.s. dollar hasn't been as strong in the last few months. so if you were to see continues weakness in u.s. economic growth. i would expect volume difficult and growth track together all the time that they would converge which creates a trapdoor in the market. so the idea that the fed is good
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is always good until the not. it gets back to your comment in the beginning when you say are we out of the woods? i agree with david's comments. the problem i have with it the market in jgeneral when you hav markets that are based on volume difficult suppression from central banks, the market is riddled with trapdoor scenario as long as that continues. >> what would you say about that? >> we were talking about this before. market continues to grind higher. this has been a seven-year bull market that everybody has loved to hate. with the stock market and underlying fundamentals is definitely concerning. we need to see some earnings growth later this year, otherwise the fundamental thesis for stocks goes out the window. >> market drives higher. earnings get worse. meaning that valuations are probably too rich for many investors. >> i wouldn't say they're too rich but undervalued. i think we need to see that cash
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flow growth begin to pick up in order for the markets to keep pushing higher. people don't want to see more than 16.5%. >> if you're purely based on gauging the multiple to drive the market in here what is that based on is the question you ask yourself. if that's based on the market to drive that higher to a level that's tough to square with reality in the sense you have to create the new metrics on high the market should go higher -- expensive markets creates bad o outcomes. >> if growth is slow. equities are getting fully valued, interest rates stay low. bl >> what do you buy, gold? >> i think gold could play a role. what's gold worth? well, it's only worth what somebody else will pay you for it. it's really tough to value but i
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think what we're seeing in a negative interest rate world, investors are looking for a safe haven asset. they're looking for a place to put money. it used to be government bonds. i think gold is catching a bid for that reason. >> they're looking for a safe haven, david, when does the tide go out? >> i think one would be investors losing faith in the central banks to hold up multiples. that hasn't happened yet in the u.s. to some extent over short periods of time. a little nor japan maybe. inflation would be the other factor that would drive it, meaning we see that in the back half for the year. and the other one would be deterioration. just ado downshift of china. >> looking like we have a modest rally on our hands a couple hours before it opens. gentlemen, thank you. coming up, which hedge fund
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managers made the most money last year, for themselves. and institutional investor is out with its new ranking, we'll unveil the top names. as we head to break, we'll look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers.
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it has been a rough couple of years for hedge funds
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according to data provider hedge fund research. the average fund was down 20% in 2015 and was up 0.3% through april. alpha magazine is out with its 15th ranking of. world highest hemp fund managers. citadel's kept griffin. and james simons. the names are well-known. it was the year of the computer guys. >> yes. >> if you look at the performance, the people using fundamentals or macro to invest really had a tough time. the computers seemed to nail it. it was pretty amazing. renaissance, funds were up 15,
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16%. citadel's was up to 15%. impressive year for the clubs. >> david tepper doesn't trade with a computer. >> no. >> he's done well. one of the greatest investors are all time, obviously. you can make money in the environment without a computer, it's just an extraordinary difficult environment to do so. >> for sure. if you look what the computer does in the case of bridgewater, basically you use the computer to monitor. it's not so much that you're trying to find things that no one else can find, it's really -- it's trying to basically discern those macro economic factors how they're going to move markets. >> nearly half of the top 25 earners use computer to trade, is that right? >> yes, or rely on them. it's pretty remarkable. if you look at the activists, which is the polar opposite, they had a tough year in 2015.
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there was only one activist that made the list. chris hawn of tci. >> it's harder to be an activist, i guess in a more flatter, down, more volatile market. >> for sure. just ask david einhorn. >> what about this year? are we seeing a change in any trend? >> i think, they have done well so far this year. they're still positive. whereas, most managers have actually struggled a little bit. but you've seen in the last couple months there has been a turn. r renaissance are still up. >> i'm wondering if you think there would ever be -- >> because of fees? >> because of fees and certain positions making profits. overall performance being done.
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i'm wondering if you think there will be more pressure from investors on certain of those funds, where the managers are still having great paydays but the performance is still down? >> we're starting to see it. i mean, even for the manager where the performance has been good, like citadel. yesterday, there were people outside of citadel's head quarters in chicago protesting. ken griffin has made so much money and also very active in illinois politics. but there is pressure from investors. you're see also some big institutional investors like new york pull out from hedge funds. so, i think will you start to see, a little bit, you know, more of a concession by some of these managers. >> well it's been a tough run for sure. some of the other managers that have had a tough time making money. well-known names. who is on your list? >> one of the people that's interesting this year is chase cullman. he was succeeded by julia
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roberts of tiger. it's probably what's called a tiger seed. it's most successful, you know, over the last six, seven, eight years. this year, he's down, i think maybe 20%. i mean, it's pretty remarkable. last year, he had a great fourth quarter that enabled him to end up 6%, 7% for the year and make the list. but he's been riding on high profile internet and media stock. it's been a difficult year for chase. >> this year's number one earners brought home $1.7 billion each. michael good to see you michael potts, institutional investors. coming up the race to the white house. a new poll from a former advice to hillary clinton shows a close race. and we head to break with a check of what's happening in european markets right now.
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welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc first in business worldwide. u.s. equity futures after a modest selloff monday. dow opened up 111 points. s&p will open up by 12. the nasdaq would open up by 23. much of that is driven by some firming in oil prices. wti is still under 45 bucks a barrel. but it is up 1%. brent up 1.5%. joe. according to a new poll being released this morning, the race for the white house is close. hillary clinton leading donald trump by four points in these states. mark penn designed a poll for the harvard university center. he's the president and managing partner of stagwell group also former chief strategist of hillary clinton's 2008 presidential campaign. mark penn joins us now.
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mark, i just saw other polls of swing states. the quinnipiac. anyway, he's ahead in that one, in pennsylvania and really close in florida. and ohio. so, this is not an outlier, your poll? >> well, our poll shows a six-point raceoverall, we took it about a month ago combined with students who put in a lot of interesting messaging questions. it shows that hillary has a strong lead on domestic issues, economy, health care and others, others, certainly the rights of women, minorities. and trump had significant edge on some of the national security and terrorism issues but, of course, the big message of this poll and any other poll is that it's a more divided country than ever between the candidate its,e appears and ideology.
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>> do you have any resistance, mark, because you're so close to both hillary and bill, i know you're designing an objective poll here. but you must get questions again and again, could you really be totally objective? >> i think the numbers speak for themselves. i think everyone can interpret the number us. in fact, we've had groups of students look at this from the trump perspective. as you see in the poll if trump goes negative on hillary. the race actually went to 38/38. on the other hand, hillary's got core advantages on the issues, even if these got a problematic unfavorable, donald trump as a much more problematic unfavorable and continues to divide the country in areas where he's perceived as a racism and anti-women. and these are big problems that trump has. >> now, you're also pretty savvy about these things, too, i'd think. you would probably, i'm sure you would behind the scenes and the
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public urging your -- maybe you still have friends on the democratic side of the aisle. i'm sure you do. i think the message you need to send is that, do you think this is a slam dunk? maybe you should not -- don't stay home. you don't need to show up for this if i wouldn't understand estimate trump getting that primary. >> we need really to get voters out. about 130 billion americans have typically been voting. i noticed yesterday over 220 million logon to facebook every day. there's a gap between people interested in politics and people who get out and vote in politics. and i think that's going to be hotly contested. look, i think here, hillary on the one hand, i think has got to bring the country together. trump has got to soften some of the divisiveness that he has been sowing in the political system if he hopes to get anywhere near 50%.
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and hillary has to fend off the attack which is i think so far she's been successful. i don't think trump has had a very good first week of being presumptive nominee by any stretch. >> mrs. clinton leads donald trump, the business guy on jobs and the business guy leads the secretary of state on national security and issues related to international affairs? >> we, i think in this poll, she's seen as knowledgeable about the issues and ready for president. and he is seen as tough. and i think that's why, when you raise issues of military and others, he scores very well in those issues in this poll. he has some independent score on the economy that gives him some credibility there. but i think that the domestic issues typically govern in these presidential races. the economy has been the number one issue for quite sometime. >> but doesn't he have credibility on job creation? >> he has some. as you look through this poll,
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she had a 15-point lead, though, on economy and jobs. that's a pretty good place to open the campaign with. >> yeah. 50% of the country is going to hate the next president. >> we don't know how this is going to end up. i think that you've got to look at this as coming out of the primary season. you know, hillary can, i think, bring people together. trump is going to do the opposite mission. he's obviously going on megyn kelly because he feels he crossed the lines. >> mark, trump might even be kind of -- he's not as well-known in the american public as hillary clinton is. i'm not speaking for myself, but i can tell you that there are people that are never going to be happy hillary clinton is president. just believe me, when i tell you that. that the clintons are back in the white house. you've got a 56 negative on her and a 61 negative on trump. 56, there's only 100 right?
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does that mean 54 don't have a negative opinion. she has incredible baggage, mark, i know you worked for her. but believe me when i tell you that. >> well, i think she ran successfully in new york state where she was a senator. bit end of her term she was really well liked. there's a lot of potential here. the country is divided. it's been divided now for a number of years. she's pretty well positioned to start to bridge a lot of those divisions, having to overcome both the attacks, the obstacles as you point out. i think her unfavorable in the polls, 52, 53. >> i'm not he's the objectivity in the polling here all of a sudden, mark. i feel like it's stephanopoulos interviewing trump. i'm not feeling the objectivity. >> look, i'd be first to acknowledge is this not a cakewalk. it's a real race. but you've also got to acknowledge she goes in here with a significant edge, and donald comes in with a 60%
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negative, the highest we've ever seen a candidate come in. we don't know how it's going to come out. she goes in with the edge, they're both going to have to unify the country. >> if you want to allow people -- i think you should yause mixed metaphors not a cakewalk or a walk on the cake. or say it's the 800 pound gorilla in the room. michelle used that. instead of the elephant in the room. we digress. thanks. appreciate it. thanks for talking this morning. >> talk to you during the polls. >> we will. coming up the million dollar payout that could have been why uber drivers are feel short changed by the ride sharing company. plus, meals on the wheels, am zan partnering with tyson fooleds to take on meal apron next.
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uber drivers in california and massachusetts would have been entitled to an estimated $730 million in expense reimbursement over the past seven years if -- had they been employees rather than contractors according to court documents just made public. uber drivers have filed a class-action lawsuit against the ride-sharing service. uber disputes the idea that drivers would ever be entitled
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to the reimbursement rate attorneys are using to calculate the figure. the new ceo of valeant pharmaceuticals has his work cut out for him. they're under investigation by the sec offer its accounting practices. the stock is down more than 85% in the last year. joseph papa outlines the challenges in an interview last night with jim cramer. >> i know we've got some things we're going to work on. i believe that we're going to be generating cash. that's important. we are generating cash and generating ebitda. i think the foot print is in place. do i have to execute on things. correct, jim. i do think -- look at it. first thing i need to do is stabilize the company. that's working with our employees and the physicians and making sure that we work with patients. i have to get the stabilization. after that i have to turn it around. that's going to be launching
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some of these new products. i have to make sure i take care of the debt-holders. i am comfortable we have a plan for that. and generate the total share of the return. >> mr. papa also addressed comments made last week on "squawk box" by berkshire hathaway vice chairman charlie munger. >> charlie munger said that valeant's a sewer because it jacked up prices of old medicines to gain the system. e papa, why would you want to be a part of that? >> i looked at the information and said what do the people look like. many of the people who are there -- 22,000 people, all dedicated to try to improve patients' lives. i think that's an important, noble cause and i think that's why pharmaceuticals are so important. >> he said he has his work cut out for him. he certainly does. >> he has been there for what, two weeks? three weeks. >> i think maybe only a week. i think his first real day was maybe monday, last monday.
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>> it's nice for him to try to shore up sentiment, but you wonder how much due diligence he needs to do. >> rough couple of weeks for your buddy with the beautiful eyes and the lashes. ackman. >> i wasn't sure who you were referring to. >> tough couple of weeks. even herbalife, right? >> he has so many friends. >> what's his break-even on valeant? have any idea? >> his break-even on valeant? i don't remember. >> he has been buying on the way down, i guess. it's way above this, right? >> his break even on herbalife is in the 30s. >> should have been short valeant and long herbalife, right? that would have been a pretty good pair trade.
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most retail brokers in the old days -- now it's more fee based. if you just would mess up the order ticket, your clients would be much better off. >> you never did that. >> it's contrarian thinking. normally the crowd would be wrong. >> he would be the first to admit and he did -- >> i learned from that, at least. >> last monday he was on at noon, half time report. >> heard of it. >> he admitted that he should have sold the stock when it was at 200. maybe now he wishes he never invested to begin with. he is sort of in it. >> 51%. >> all in. >> ackman has generally growth and other ones. he also has jc penney and target. it's a pretty good record. think if you batted .510. >> general growth, the upside. >> people don't mention the home
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runs that often. >> they used to. he was on the cover of "fortune" as the greatest -- >> baby buffett is what it says on the cover of fortune. he said he's trying to stay off the covers of magazines. >> elizabeth holmes is also trying to stay off the cover. >> death of earthquakes business jifr jinx. ceo of motorola solutions will talk taxes, politics and the health of the economy. later, joined here on the set by new york city police commissioner bill bratton. that's why we'll feel very safe. be right back.
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investors focusing on energy, the dollar, and some key earnings today including disney. politics also front and center. primaries today in west virginia and nebraska. we'll talk economy, taxes, the race for the white house, and more with motorola solutions ceo and business round-table member greg brown. damage and devastation, canadian officials getting the first look at an oil sands boom time destroyed by the massive wildfire. nearly 400,000 acres of alberta have been burned. a live report and check on oil prices straight ahead. plus, on fleek etf. a new fund focused on social media, entertainment and food trends. all things millennial as wall street looks to tap into the younger generation and track their spending. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box."
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all right. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm scott wapner along with joe kernen and kayla touchy. the futures looking decent. dow opens higher by 75. nasdaq by 12 and the s&p by 7.5. crude oil has been reacting to events around the world lately. the out-of-control wildfire in canada. now negative by .25%. $43.33. the saudi shuffle factoring in as well. there is brent and natural gas higher this morning. gold is near a 1.5 week low as the dollar remains strong. interesting that you have a stronger dollar. and the markets are looking pretty good. there is gold down slightly. $12.65 an ounce. kayla. small business sentiment on the rise. the monthly index from the national federation of independent business rose by a full point in april to 93.6.
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small business owners, however, are continuing to say they are having trouble finding qualified workers to fill open positions. only music service spotify says its growth has accelerated since the launch of rival service apple music last year. spotify says it has nearly 100 million users in about 59 markets. the company saying apple has raised the profile of music streaming. we're still watching shares of dean foods this morning. the dairy producer reporting earnings of 45 cents per share for the latest quarter, that's 7 cents above estimates. stock down slightly by .3%. the company making a separate announcement about the acquisition of the manufacturing and retail operations of the friendlies ice cream beyond. friendlys had sales of $166 million in, i believe. 2014. but not bad for a company that was bankrupt five years ago. >> thank you.
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gap is reporting a drop in same-store sales for the fifth straight month. weak demand at banana republic and old navy. they expect first quarter earnings to be blow forecast. disney will report quarterly results. wall street looking for earnings $1.40 per share. revenue $13.2 billion. beyond the numbers, three things to watch. first, succession plans. this will be the first earnings call for disney since the recent and sudden resignation of coo tom staggs who many thought of and was pretty much outlined to be the heir apparent to ceo bob iger. second, espn. keep an eye on subscriber numbers. disappointment from the cable network overshadowed disney's quarters. in the past, the company is trying to revamp programming, bring costs down. we'll see how that actually turns out. third, box office block busters, the street expects the force is still with disney.
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in this report thanks to studio hits like "zootopia" shares of disney over 4% over the past year. scott, that happens today after the bell. viacom's board considering further cuts to sumner redstone's pay. he made $2 million last year. the "wall street journal" says via kam and cbs board members are planning to investigate his competence for themselves. yesterday a judge threw out a lawsuit brought by a former girlfriend challenging her removal as redstone's health care agent. the drama at lending club continuing to unravel. the internal probe into its business practices led to the resignation of its ceo yesterday. the investigation focused on a more than $20 million loan to a single investor and violated that firm's practices. that's bringing former morgan stanley ceo and lending club board member john mack into the spotlight. he invested in the same venture
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apparently that has led to all of the controversy. bill acman selling shares of a pharmaceutical company but not the one you might think. seeking to sell $800 million worth of shares from zoetis. last week he told client's the portfolio rose 10% last month as valeant's stock climbed back a bit. voters go to the polls in nebraska and west virginia today. entering today's contest clinton was 155 delegates shy of the 2,383 needed to clinch the democratic nomination. trump will also move closer to securing the 1,237 delegates needed to make his nomination official for the gop. 34 delegates will be at stake in west virginia, while 36 on the line in nebraska, which is a winner-take-all state. trump currently has 1,070
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delegates. our ghost houest host is we versed in everything from taxing to immigration and trade and the encryption battle. greg brown, the ceo of motorola. great to see you. >> nice to see you, joe. >> you can talk about so many different things. let's start macro and see if you can explain this bifurcated economy that has a -- always threatening to break under 5% unemployment and we're barely threatening to break over .5% gdp. >> i know. it's -- i think it's a tale of two cities. the u.s. economy, i think, is recovering in what i would characterize as a measured way. plodding along. we just reported results last quarter. north america came in above expectations. latin america is a mess, led by brazil. worst recession in a hundred years, the political unrest about rousseff.
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they have to host the olympics in rio later this year. that's down strong double-digits for us. china was down markedly for us, probably 25%. and i think that was largely as expected. it's a tricky country to do business, although motorola was the first u.s. multi-national in that country in the early '80s. overall latin america negative, asia pac positive, north america positive, emea mixed. oil have a contractionry effect on some of the gulf proving. >> it should be improving. they have positive gdp. >> western europe is better. eastern europe, russia and ukraine, given the sergeanancti continues to be challenging. but that is what we're seeing for europe. >> i don't know what you attribute the .5 here to at this
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point. some people say the u.s. would be leading the world if it had stronger growth and if we were at 3% that, you know, you hear that we're the best house in a bad neighborhood. >> yep. >> other people say that because our house isn't as good that the entire neighborhood is down. >> i know you had john engler here last week. i think that the economy is muddling along. it is improving. we had 160,000 jobs in april, less than the 200,000 job target. but monetary policy has been leading the way. we need fiscal policy, and we need the other pillars to incent investment here in the u.s. immigration reform, tax reform, infrastructure reform. >> got to be more than that too, greg. in the past -- infrastructure, i hear it all the time. but in the past -- >> we haven't done anything. >> i don't look for congress or fiscal policy to jump-start our -- what is normally the best private sector economy in the
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world. >> sure. >> now, it's been seven or eight years. you're still -- and you're at .5% with zero on interest rates for seven years. free money around the world and the corporate sector still is not investing. there is -- we're doing something to ourselves. it's not just what we're not doing to help ourselves. it's got to be partly self-inflicted, don't you think? >> i think so. i go back to, assume you don't have high expectations for congress. you have to have -- fred smith from fedex has talked about this forever. he has a simple chart. you show me cap-ex investment, i'll show you economic recovery. >> right. what's holding that back? >> incentives for cap-ex investment. >> what about certainty, tax policy, regulations. >> sure. companies don't like to invest in uncertain times. be that as it may, we have more
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uncertainty than certainty. we made a congress to act. i know we sit and wait. in the meantime, other companies surgically -- we're spending significantly more on cap-ex this year than last year. >> where is it going? >> interesting you say that. >> you talk about a weak global economy in the u.s., supposed to be growing more than .5%. are you changing the capital and where you're investing it? >> we are but we have unique circumstances. we just completed the second largest acquisition in motorola in the last seven or eight years. we bought the public safety network in the u.k. now we are the operator for a network called air wave. that requires more capital investment. the initial investment has been redirected to an attractive market in great britain where we just completed this acquisition. >> so you get to be king for a day and you get to pass one law in congress that will be signed. what is it? what do you want? >> tax reform.
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>> well that's different. okay. >> i would. >> i mean, that's a supply side sort of solution. that's not a fiscal -- not a stimulus, infrastructure, you know -- that's the amazing thing. on one side of the aisle if you give a wish, on the other side what do you want congress to do. >> why can't you wish for both? >> i don't know. i would wish for -- >> normal stuff. tax reform and infrastructure or stimulus. >> infrastructure -- one man's infrastructure is another man's digging holes and filling them back up again. and that's the point. >> yeah, but i agree with scott. i would do both because, joe, on infrastructure it's -- >> public-private partnerships? >> well, look. rail, bridges, roads. it's modernizing infrastructure. you're hear in new york. go to jfk or laguardia. >> the private sector will rise to the occasion to do that where obviously you'll make a profit, but that's different than just mandating things that are going
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to be done, shovel-ready projects with the trillion-dollar stimulus that we blew on no shovel-ready projects. >> the other thing i would do because you talked about unemployment and recovery. there is a whole thing around skills. as a business round-table member, we're pretty big zealots around comprehensive immigration reform. legalizing or providing status for the 11.3 illegal immigrants here, providing e-verify -- look, immigration will add 4.8% of gdp over 20 years. it reduces the deficit. it's absolutely a skills and a demand driver in jobs that are open and unfilled at primarily at the low-skill level. we need to attract h 1 b and low skilled. we talk about spending, but we don't talk as much about skills. and i think immigration reform -- >> both sides have points on immigration too. you can't -- you can't control
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legal immigration if -- if you can't secure your border. >> well, so that's -- i agree. so despite which side of the aisle you're on -- >> exactly. >> -- immigration reform starts with securing the border. >> all these -- all these hot-button issues have different meanings on each side of the aisle, which is what's scary. >> but securing the border shouldn't be that difficult in 2016. >> kerry yesterday said it's going to be an open-border world. >> then we're not going to have immigration reform. you have to secure the borders. >> if we brought -- how much is over there? $3 trillion? what if we brought that back. >> you talked about supplier demand. when i say corporate tax reform it includes the 2.5 billion offshore. >> you're preaching to the choir on this. that's not what most people mean. people think congress has prevented the obama administration from doing what it wants to do. he hasn't been on the bully pulpit for taxes.
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that's a totally different idea of what you want congress to do. >> that's why i said tax reform. i think it's supply side and demand. facebook in hot water after conservative publications say the company censored stories from the site's trending topics. detail straight ahead. next, new york police commissioner bill bratton joins us to talk counter-terrorism, the encryption debate and more. "squawk box" will be right back.
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welcome back to "squawk box." futures right now, it almost is as if they moved with oil again. oil was up yesterday and today early in the session. now -- that suddenly started trading lower. we were up over 100 points based on where europe was. now up 58. still positive. it will trade until 4:00 but off the best levels of the session, the s&p up 6. nasdaq up 8. facebook in hot water over bias allegations. a former facebook news curator on the record saying the social network censors articles in the trending news side bar. facebook denying the quote yesterday saying it's a platform for people and perspectives from across the political spectrum. scott. the battle lines between tech and government being drawn. apple still fighting with the fbi. here in new york the manhattan district attorney is pushing to get the company to open up over
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200 iphones containing critical information for ongoing criminal cases. add to that, twitter set to join the privacy fight against the intelligence community. joining us now to weigh in on this polarizing debate over encryption is new york police commissioner bill bratton. in the case of apple he's blasted them for their unwillingness to unlock criminals' iphones calling it, quote, crippminal irresponsibility. good morning. >> good morning. >> are you stead fast in your belief that tech companies should do whatever they can to cooperate with law enforcement. >> i think they should try to cooperate with law enforcement, with our criminal justice system. even the use of the term of trying to get through the back door. we're not trying to go through the back door. we're trying with a court order to go through the front door. we're not sneaking into these devices or systems. we're literally trying to solve crime and prevent terrorism.
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our district attorney has close to 200 phones and i have 500 in new york city that i cannot get into because of encrypted technology. this is a debate that needs to continue and both sides need to add their viewpoints. ultimately it will end up in the courts and congress will get into it in some way, shape or form. >> why do you think it's so difficult to convince a sizable part of the population of your point of view. >> everybody likes their privacy. though you wouldn't know it. >> they like to be safe more than pricy. >> social media has been a boon to law enforcement because we are able to access it in a public space. it's when it goes into the private space that we seek to get, through a court order. >> you can't be safe without privacy. and down the road the last thing we want is a foreign entity to shut down our grid for a year because encryption is not really encryption. >> for a year? for a day. it would be devastating for a day. >> it could get nasty for a
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month without the grid. food would be rotting in the -- i mean, it's scary. the technology is moving so fast, commissioner, that you're going to get to a point where there is nothing to access. it's going to disappear after its used. so would you pass legislation not allowing technology companies to create something where there are no records? >> we don't know where it's going. >> imagine it's headed there. >> that's why this debate at this time is so healthy because it is evolving so quickly. i look at coming back into the business in 1970 as a young cop. my first walkie-talkie was a motorola walkie-talkie. weighed about 4 and a half pounds. now every cop has a smartphone with customized apps with more power in their hands than we had in all the ibm computers in the '90s. >> it would be incredibly dangerous if someone were to be able to hack into one of your department's phones. >> for example, we have encryption capabilities on those phones. to access them you have to use
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the office's actual i.d. card to get into the phone. city of newark police department has hacked a couple of weeks ago. one of the hackers basically captured the information and wanted the ransom to return it. that gives you an example of how crazy this has become. >> by the way, it also -- this also leads to what you put on a carrier network or a cellular network and what's on a private network. the radio communications in new york is a private network. the encryption keys are owned by the customer. law enforcement. the data, the content for every first responder emergency is owned by law enforcement. so we're in a different position because, if you are really concerned about hacking, if you are really concerned about security, put information on a private, encrypted, secure network. >> or a server, which we have learned. when you really want to keep it private, use the private server. >> don't connect it to the internet. but there is a distinction
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between private and cellular and what bill described. >> how do you make your work force savvier. when jim comey was testifying he said the fbi is not the fbi you see on prime-time television. we're not the superheroes that we are portrayed fictionally. they should have had some of the skills that he claimed they didn't have. >> i have almost a thousand personnel in our counter-terrorism bureau working on the investigative side making intelligence out of information. i pay a lot of money to a lot of very smart kids coming out of college to be our researchers, to sit on the computers, access what's going on in the world. but i lose them after a year or two because they get a resumé item from us and then they move into the private sector where the competition for those skills is phenomenal. so we are at a great disadvantage, fbi. fbi, what he's talking about, comey, is that a large part of
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his work force you're never going to see. they're buried in the bunkers looking at the computers all day long. but attracting the talent and attracting the skill-set, those people are hard to come by because in the private sector they can pay a hell of a lot better than we can. >> excuse me. i'm sorry. let me turn your attention if i could to this attack in munich overnight. and how those types of events, in a very public place, on a train, a subway platform, are influencing the way that your force does its job here in new york city. >> for example, as soon as we got notification of that attack, that we have detectives in europe stationed in different cities, so they immediately start seeing what can they get that might not be immediately available, certainly what's coming out over the public tv and radio channels. but this morning new york public traveling our subway system will in many of our stations, transit hubs, see a significant
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increased police presence. police officers with dogs, bag screening. anytime we have an event until we understand exactly what happened, might it have a ripple ramification in our city. we gear up in new york with a lot of resources to quickly respond to protect. but more importantly, to be quite frank with you, and the name of the game in this world is intelligence, get it -- get them before they get us. >> how many detectives do you have overseas? >> we now have 13. we just signed an agreement to put a detective with europol as it gets more active. >> you've run boston, l.a., new york twice. >> have a hard time holding a job. >> if you were dropped into chicago monday as the commissioner or the superintendent on monday, what would you do in that situation? >> couple of things. first off, getting out to the public as quickly as possible, talking about what just happened, using the crises to -- not a crisis -- crises always provides opportunity.
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the continuing effort to try to rally the public, the political leadership and the police force around this issue that, not only in chicago but many other cities around the country, we're seeing a significant surge in violence. fortunately not here in new york. new york this year we're trending to have the lowest crime year ever, ever, in a city that's now growing significantly. but in chicago it's really about trying to get everybody's arms around this problem. it's not just a police problem. >> right. >> in chicago it's a government problem, it's a political problem as much as a crime problem. >> how well are the cities sharing information with each other within this country and with our international counterparts? >> so much has changed since 9/11. my two years now as police commissioner. i spend a lot of time working relationships with our federal colleagues. we have the best relationship ever in terms of seamless relation happens. fbi, d.e.a., i.c.e., we're working well with them.
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we have fusion centers around the country that we did not have on 9/11 where intelligence centers are gathering information regionally to make regional decisions and are sharing that information nationally. we're so much better prepared than we were back at 9/11. good news is that's continually expanding. >> commissioner, good to have you here this morning. >> great to be with you. new york police department commissioner bill bratton. coming up, the -- >> whoa, whoa, whoa. >> oh, sorry. >> go ahead. >> no. you reeled it -- >> you do it better. >> no. you prepared this. you go ahead. you want to do it because talk about a hyperloop. see, you don't have anyone. you don't have to share on your halftime report, do you? all scott all the time. you were on a roll. because you're on a roll, roll with this. the hyperloop wars. that story and more. corporate headlines straight
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ahead. is now the time to put money to work across the pond? find out what names should be in your portfolio. look at futures this morning. not as good as they were. still in the green. dow would open higher by about 57. "squawk box" returns right after this.
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among the stories front and center today, court documents say uber drivers in california and massachusetts would have been owed about $730 million in expense reimbursement had they been classified as employees rather than contractors. drivers have sued uber and rival lyft in those states who say they should in fact be considered employees. we're watching shares of lumber liquidators this morning, reporting a wider than expected loss and a nearly 14% drop in same store sales. dow component walt disney reporting quarterly earnings after the bell. expecting to report profit of $1.40 per share. revenue $13.2 billion. investors will be carefully watching subscriber numbers for disney cable channels like espn, and the last year down 3.5%. shares up close to 1% in pre-market trading.
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news just out. allergan is planning to buy back 4 to $5 billion in additional stock. it will execute that plan over the next four to six months. the share purchases contingent on the completion of the sale of the business to teffa. stock on the news up 2% in the premarket. >> therein, joe, part of the issue. when you talk about how to get the economy off of .5% and you want businesses to invest or reinvest the money or whatever, another company doing a buy-back. that's where they're spending their billions of dollars. >> five years ago -- >> shareholders keep cheering. >> greenspan was working to figure things out. the more government activism there is. whether the fed, executive branch or congress, the more activism there is, the more potential for a shorter duration
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investments. it's hard to do 20-year investments when you have -- >> i think, look, that's an easy thing to say. but ceos have to manage short-term -- >> they're not, joe. >> it depends. you have to manage short-term and long-term. buybacks depend on the intrinsist value of the firm. you do a discounted cash flow. management knows better than anyone what the growth trajectory of the firm is. >> i don't think ceos -- did eastman kodak ceo know that buying back stock at $80 made sense. did caterpillar know that buying back stock at 100 is better? >> the allergan repurchase, $10 billion. $4 billion to $5 billion of that is in the next few months. >> you're absolutely right that as ceos deploy the capital in a buyback it's very hard, if not impossible, to predict
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macroeconomic and market movement. >> greg, in druckenmiller sent me data on this. four or five years ago when the multiple was 14 or 15, buybacks have tripled now at 19. now, that makes -- zirp, free money and not going the long-term investments. >> you could do zirp and free money and build a plant. >> that's the problem. you think ibm has been effective so they can keep saying, we can't grow revenue but we keep reducing our float? that's managing a company? >> i am only suggesting there are bad examples and good examples. motorola has been more aggressive in buying back shares than any company. we've reduced the float 49%. where did the $11 billion go? an average price of 57 bucks. that's a good investment when you look at the durability of
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the earnings and cash flow. we have the discretion to do capital acquisitions. we've rung up on annualized shareholder return of over 20% the last five years. >> you have seen the business capital investments. what is the problem in your view? what is the problem? >> uncertainty. in general. ceos would prefer -- >> that's supposedly why they make ceo is to deal with uncertainty. >> i know, but you don't face into the wind and feel the pressure because i have money in my wallet. my gosh, i have to spend it. >> will there ever be uncertainties? >> there are degrees. if agrees would act on some of the things. >> tax reform. be specific. >> tax reform 30 years ago. immigration reform, how about that, 30 years ago. when is the last time we had infrastructure development? we have $2.5 trillion offshore. >> they won't bring it back because it might go to shareholders. >> put some requirements around
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it. put requirements around a percentage that should go into cap-ex and let management make the decision. it's not that complicated. >> who should do it? congress can't do it. >> you have to have a willing administration, a willing congress and understanding the economic need to do it. >> nothing is going to happen until november. >> probably not. that's right. new administration. >> and you -- you assume that ann after a new election that things will happen with like comprehensive tax reform. >> i don't think so. do you? >> no. but that's a pathetic state of affairs in washington. >> it is. i still contend -- we had mark penn on. i still contend half the country is going to be absolutely horrified by whoever the next president is. half will be horrified by one and the other half will be horrified by the other. >> we were talking in the break about how that's not that different from the last number of years and any prior leader. >> it's more of the same, i
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guess. >> you were hoping for it to be different? >> yeah. i was hoping for the '80s. hairstyles and all. i'm growing sideburns and facial hair. markets. we're focusing on a few sectors including health care and energy. here to explain why those and others could be opportunities, executive vice president and portfolio manager at the unit of frankl franklin templeton. fl philippe, good morning. >> good morning. >> i can't tell you what's going to work in the immediate future. >> that's what you do! >> i can tell you where we find value and health care is one of them. why? simply because health care valuation have come down basically on concerns about pricing. there have been a few companies which have been engaging in egregious behavior, you know, about -- doubling, tripling,
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quadrupling the price of drugs. particularly in an election year has attracted the eye of politicians. but not all health care companies have this kind of business model where very little is spent on r&d and the way to go is to buy companies and jump the price of drugs. companies like merck trading at attractive cash flow multiple. it's about 30 and a half times. yield 3.5%. it's a company which has a vast pipeline of new drugs which will be coming in the market. >> but is betting on health care contingent on betting that the entire industry won't be upended by whomever comes into office next january? >> we have this conversation every four years. every time there is a presidential election the health care sector comes into focus about price -- drug prices and health care costs. i think there are good actors
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and not so good actors and it's up to the shareholder to focus on the right one. >> you also like u.s. energy. >> yes, i do. >> to say it's been out of favor in the last year is an underestimate. >> this is a very contrarian view, but i think that the current price of oil is not sustainable, at least in the medium term, to make -- >> not sustainable at the high level? >> at current levels, even up from $26, we are at $45 but it's still not enough to make the finding of new replacement reserves economical. on top of that, you have had drastic exploration cuts by a number of companies, particularly in the -- the independent ones. and i think that will lead to better equilibrium between supply and demand pretty soon. >> at what price, and when? >> that's the $60 million question. but certainly our view is that
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oil will be around where it is now until the end of the year. should be into 50 to 55 next year and 60 to 65 next year. >> philippe, we wish you the best of luck with these ideas working. thank you for coming in. >> thank you very much. getting millennials to invest in etf looking to invest young money on wall street. strategics will "squawk box" will be right back. thank you. ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. i order b14. i get b14. no surprises. buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster white knuckle thrill ride. you're promised one speed. but do you consistently get it? you do with comcast business. it's reliable. just like kung pao fish. thank you, ping. reliably fast internet starts at $59.95 a month. comcast business.
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massive tornado ripped apart a house and crumbled a power pole in oklahoma. it was all caught on tape. in the video -- everything is on tape, isn't it? you can see the towering funnel cloud rolling across the open field. the storm crosses a busy road, causing power lines to spark and crackle as the winds roar. in the town of wynnewood, one person was killed in the storms. in johnson county a second confirmed death is being reported. several homes were hit by the oklahoma tornados. that's incredible video right there. >> really is. oklahoma, i'm telling you.
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something about the weather patterns there. always oklahoma. oklahoma and kansas. meantime, in alberta, canada, residents getting the first look at the aftermath of the wildfire that tore through the town. deirdre is live with more. >> reporter: evacuees like the ones at the center behind me are waking up to a a little bit more information they're seeing what their city now looks like with images like these. charred homes, cars, businesses, 10% to 15% of the oil sands city has been completely wiped out. 2400 structures damaged. officials are saying that it is still not saf for residents to return, and it could be sometime until the city is once again hospitable. large areas still have no water, gas or electricity. but within two weeks the nearly 100,000 displaced residents, many of them oil sands workers and their families, should at least have some idea of when they can return. as for the fire itself, it is
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still burning and it's still out of control in some places. it is also still growing, though that pace has thankfully slowed. it measures 767 square miles in size up from about 620 square miles yesterday. oil sands operations are still secure. the question for them now is when and how can they ramp up production? how quickly can they do so? remember that a million barrels a day were taken off line and it could take time before the region can reach full production once again. some of the pipelines and the power supply in the region need to be restarted as well. back to you. >> deirdre, thank you so much. they've resisted buying homes and buying cars, at least up until now. they've also avoided investing. look at you, kayla. we'll introduce you to an on-fleek etf. throw some shade at kayla.
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>> you got any more? >> yeah. because she is thirsty. that targets millennials. the ceo of global x funds joins us with his man bun. he is coming out here on a hoverboard. look at where oil is trading at this hour. we'll be right back.
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that's you. >> yeah, i know. >> investors have -- l.o. l. investors have been -- yolo. you need your own etf. investors have been desperately looking to ride the wave of millennial spending. now there is a way to do it. through the global x millennials thematic etf. preferences of the millennial generation. joining us is bruno del ama, global x fund ceo and co-founder. you are closing. you are not, bruno, a millennial anymore, are you? >> not a millennial. gen-x. >> you have your finger on the pulse of the millennial generation. you feel that you do. you have done some work, some research and background.
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>> done a little bit of work, yes. generally a bad idea to bet against the american consumer. millennials are increasingly becoming part of the american consumer, in fact, they're the growth engine. the biggest generation, about 90 million people. they're big and growing rapidly. they are about $2 trillion in income which is expected to quadruple over the next decade and they consume differently than other generations. >> that's for sure. in the tv business a lot of times we break down ratings and demos. i always wonder. the 18 to 20 -- they have no money. why do you care? everybody says you advertise to them because you want to -- i don't know. >> brand loyalty? >> you want to get them early? is that the rationale? >> it's late teens to early 30s. so a lot of them are already, obviously, generating income, in the early stages of their professional life. >> to me.
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you ought to be talking to me. because they're flow-through vehicles for a lot of this. you're notes advertising to me, are you? >> we have millennials in my company. they certainly make good income and they're great. we are ready to bet on millennials. we think millennials are -- >> i like these names in here, don't you? facebook. you knew that was there. >> a given. >> you knew that was going to be there. how about some of the others. amazon, disney. why avalon bay communities? >> yeah. if you look at what millennials are spending money on, food, clothing, a lot of the consumer staples. so certainly, northface and a lot of the consumer brands that you would expect millennials to be spending money on. >> most of those brands are brands that the 25 to 36-year-old portion of the millennials would be spending money on. what's a 16-year-old doing on amazon or paypal? >> i think when you look at what this is part of, which is thematic investing, which is a
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type of investing that institutions have been very heavily focused on, the benefit of thematic investing is looking at growth patterns. what you're interested in here is when you're looking at consumption, where is the growth of consumption coming for. if you listen to analysts from most companies, many analysts are asking, how are you doing in terms of targeting millennials because that's where the growth is coming for. those companies positioned to target millennials are likely to do well. you are looking at current consumption and the growth in consumption. >> one day you'll have uber and snapchat and airbnb. >> wish you could have put hipster beer. isn't there a hygiene company that -- the hoverboard makers? anything you use to make one of those man buns? you know how those work, bruno. turn around.
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do you have anything. >> no. >> are you in full force with this, you think? >> not entirely. >> not until they get some of the man -- >> it's poetic justice that you had to do that. >> they did that on purpose. they're funny. they think they are. coming up, as donald trump battles hillary clinton he is also caught up in a civil war in his own company. major republicans bitterly divided over the candidate. we'll talk about it and the race for the white house. "squawk box" back after this. in. or not in vests. this is my retirement. retiring retired tires. and i never get tired of it. are you entirely prepared to retire? plan your never tiring retiring retired tires retirement with e*trade.
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all right. we're back with our guest host this morning, motorola solutions chairman and ceo greg brown. we were talking college football. >> yes. >> rutgers, the affiliation you have and how excited you are that the president is coming to speak at commencement. on your invitation. >> it's very exciting. we have never had a sitting president speak at rutgers. it's our 250th-year anniversary. we're in the big 10 now, joe, as you know. you're excited about that. >> a lot of money. >> chris ash, defensive coordinator from ohio state. bru athletic director. you'll see an announcement today or tomorrow of significance on the fund raising side. a lot is going on and the president is coming sunday. >> did we just break news? something on the fund-raising front? that's awesome. >> that's what we call a tease. >> pat hobbes put out a
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channelling for a hundred million fund-raising campaign to modernize the sports facilities, the hail center, a multi-sports facility in piscataway. i spoke with him the other night. stay tuned for more. >> you didn't work with our supervising producer and becky on this? >> i didn't see her. come to a game. great seats on the 50. >> let's talk about that when we go to break, greg. but thank you. i don't steal from you. thanks to our guest host this morning, greg brown. now joseph. coming up, primary day. voters in nebraska and west virginia heading to the polls. there may be new states in play on the electoral map. we'll dig inside the election math next. then later, president obama's record on jobs. has the labor market really recovered as much as it looks like.
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the debate with alan kruger and ed la zeer.
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. new election math. clinton-trump, a third-party
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candidate. the issues, the electoral map and what could turn the tide if you think conventional wisdom has the answers, you haven't been paying attention. to veteran political watchers debate straight ahead. will the force be with disney. and gold, two-time olympic gold medalist hope solo is here. business, soccer, and getting ready for brazil. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ go big or go home >> live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box." ♪ go, go >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i am joe kernen along with scott wapner and kayla tausche. and becky and andrew are off today or there would be 11 people on the set. less than 90 minutes away from
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the opening bell on wall street. futures up 65. up triple digits earlier. the nasdaq is up about 9. the dow jones -- s&p up 6. we've been stuck here. going into new highs or not, p wapner? we barely got to 18,000 next time. >> amazing that we got from 1810 to 2080 on the s&p, don't you think? surprised almost everybody. >> amazing because i don't -- you can't point to anything that really -- >> exactly. >> you did have the reversal of worrying about oil and worrying about the dollar. >> the dollar, right. the dollar came down a bit. >> to levels that were smart to sell. it's amazing that we haven't taken a meaningful leg lower. >> you have had some sort of feelings as though you might, but it hasn't really happened. >> the dollar is something to watch closely, as you said. you get into a back into a trend
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where the dollar starts going up, then oil maybe starts to come down, and then you start worrying about profits again and everything else. >> what would cause the dollar to go up, i would say would be bullish. >> well, rates. >> not that -- >> growth? >> something better than a .5% gdp. maybe that was a loser. >> keep hoping for that. i know it's that pettic. >> -- pathetic. oil prices have been swinging throughout the morning. crude started out up positive sharply. currently it is negative by a fraction of 1%. financials in focus. credit suisse swinging to a loss in the latest quarter results still topping expectations. shares trading higher. the firm's ceo was on cnbc earlier this morning. >> february 4th, which is last time we spoke, was a scary time. january was simply the worst january in the history of markets. so i was speaking after four weeks of that. since then, february was bad,
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but a little bit better january. march better than february. april was better than march. we are clearly on an improving trend. >> slowly but surely improving over in europe. a new survey of small business finds optimism ticked higher in the last month but the nfib which records that data report finds owners still cannot find qualified workers to fill open jobs. businesses cite a poor economy and the political climate as reasons for not expanding. scott, the political climate expanding to small business as well. >> yep. stocks to watch this morning. norwegian cruise earnings matching estimates. the company saying strong demand in the caribbean, alaska and bermuda and hawaii. nokia warning earnings will fall in main business. rackspace is giving a lack luster outlook. solar city reporting a wider than expected loss. costs surged more than 50%.
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the company slashing it expectations for solar panels. down 20%. gap same store sales dropping. expecting first quarter earnings to be below expectations. allergan getting a lift by a buck, .5%. facebook under attack accused of political bias. a former facebook news curator said the social network censors conservative political articles in something that is apparently on the side of this thing called a trending news side bar. i'll talk to kayla to see what that is. facebook denying the report yesterday saying facebook is a platform for people and perspectives from across the political spectrum. yeah, right! so -- >> we were just looking at video of it. do you still need me to --
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>> here is my question. does snapchat have a trending news thing. >> it has snapchat stories which you can click on to find out what's happening in the country. like there was a trump snapchat story when he was declared the presumptive nominee last week. you can see what people were snapping last week. >> are you on snapchat more than facebook now? >> yes. i am 30 going on 16. >> on facebook, while you are on there looking at your friends' kids in like antigua. there are also scrolling news? >> yes. and sometimes -- >> only liberal scrolling, basically. >> sometimes it just pops -- >> on the right but it's really to the left? right? >> sometimes it's in the middle. sometimes -- >> not usually from what that story -- okay.
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so in general while you're looking at what your friends are doing you can also stay current and up to date. >> yes. >> work with me on this. >> it's attempting to function as a news platform as well. it's also become the way millennials have -- >> i have never been on -- i have never been on. >> i remember covering the ipo. he was like -- >> i swear to you. >> you are not on facebook? >> no. when i said no -- are you on just for "halftime report"? it's a business thing for you, right. >> i've been on it. >> why are you surprised at me, then. >> do you have a facebook page? >> no, i do not. i told you earlier. a new poll out -- asks the question who is more likely to beat donald trump? hillary clinton or bernie sanders? the latest nbc news and survey monkey research finds hillary clinton holds a 12-point lead over bernie sanders nationally but in a hypothetical matchup against donald trump, sanders would win by 13 points.
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clinton also beats trump, but by a smaller margin. the margin there 49% to 44%. if the election were held today. >> i hear you. i hear you. that's five points. and the margin of error is probably two or three. so it's going to be -- we need to -- we need to vote to find out what really happens. right? scott, that's why you need -- villanova needed to play that game against georgetown, from years ago. >> right. >> nc state. >> right. >> just went to the white house, by the way, after all these years. >> 30 years later. >> trip to the white house. unfortunately without jimmy v. and lorenzo charles who made the basket. passed away a few years ago as well. republicans head to the polls today in nebraska. both republicans and democrats turn out in west virginia as the race narrows. to clinton versus trump. how will the economy, jobs and national security play into the pursuit for delegates?
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conventional wisdom has trump losing, as you saw. so far conventional wisdom has been dead wrong really in both primaries. here to take us inside the numbers. shelby holiday, senior video reporting at the "wall street journal" and susan glasser, editor of politico. we had mark penn on today that had some swing-state numbers that were very close. they were all about 4%, i think, was the average with a 1.5% error. quinnipiac came out with three swing states, pennsylvania, ohio and florida, all i think trump was up one, clinton was up in the other two but all by single digits. >> over the course of polling -- over the past month clinton has a strong lead over trump in swing states, which will be something to watch. you mentioned the economy. this is the election of the economy so far. that's why we see bernie sanders and trump really mobilizing a
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motivating a lot of voters who are extremely worried about jobs, very worried about wages and at least at this point it's shaping up to be the issue that people will vote on in november. >> so why do people think this hillary clinton is such a strong economic candidate? because they associate the name with bill clinton's term in the rise of the internet and the economy then? >> that has something to do with it. a lot of people also think she is not a strong candidate because, as bernie sanders has been very capable of doing, is tying her to wall street. wall street money, special interests, a lot of -- a lot of democrats at this point think maybe she wouldn't be the best candidate because she is too close to wall street. there are mixed views. i think general wall street -- "wall street journal" just had an aural aborticle about this. wall street money is flowing from the republicans to clinton. purely because of her policies and stability. donald trump, when he changes his mind a lot over the course of one week really worries the finance sector. talking about taxes, treasuries,
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changing his mind on what he would do for u.s. debt. >> we were here for that interview. he never said -- people wanted him to have said it wasn't sacrosanct. he didn't say that. he said the same thing during the interview -- >> he clarified his position. >> he clarified saying that's the same thing he said during the interview. >> he is talking about negotiating his tax plan. >> well, with the tax plan he is talking about, you know, you can parse those words too. with the corporate tax rate, when he said it might be higher he meant higher than in his plan because he may negotiate. simpson-bowles, everybody says it's not just cutting to solve our problem. it has to be taxes as well. the other side will pill ory him when he says taxes might go up on the rich when that's what they wanted him to say. >> susan, is it a runaway because hillary's policies are so great and stable.
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these are the people who think sockingism mig socialism would be good to try. >> we'll have to vote to find out. right now all our predictions have been wrong and i think the electoral math and the map matters more than people think. the national polls are interesting but they are more or less irrelevant to the fact of the system that we have right now. there are basically ten key states electorally over the last few elections, they've heavily favored the democrats. as you pointed out there is a poll out this morning showing hillary clinton splitting three of the most contested states, ohio, florida and pennsylvania, with trump. that's already, despite everything everybody already knows about donald trump. in the end you really can't win the national election without winning florida, if you are a democrat, ohio more or less is a crucial state. and already they are more or less in a dead heat. i think anybody who thinks this is going to be a defeat of barry goldwater proportions on the port of hillary clinton, there
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is no evidence yet to suggest that. that means we all better be studying the numbers in the key swing states. >> shelby, you have a map. you have been studying the numbers. >> she is right. >> the road map on how trump can get there. >> i have been studying the numbers, and she is right. this is the never say never election. we have seen things change right before our eyes that no one ever predicted. so going into the general, you know, people are hesitant to actually make predictions. but if you look at the electoral map, donald trump's path seems to be through the rust belt. if he can win michigan, wisconsin, ohio, pennsylvania, these are states with a very large white population. he seems to do very well with white working-class voters. those are the states where hillary clinton has lost as well. so their donald trump's strength and clinton's weakness. if he can win the rust belt, it would be great if he could flip florida. he doesn't necessarily need to but his biggest challenge is hanging on to the other
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republican states like north carolina, georgia. others mentioning texas where minorities make up a large percentage of the population is and where he is deeply unpopular. he is putting swing states in play that haven't been swing states for several elections. >> we've seen in this election cycle -- what month is it now? may. >> may. >> 11 minus five is six months. have i got the math right? >> yes. >> in millennial math as well it's the same, right? >> same. >> in the primary season, every three days the earth shook with something happening. these aren't even -- these are self -- these are like the candidates just talking. >> because you had a debate every three days. >> go ex og nis, munich. whatever happens over the next six months, how many days is that? by my calculations somewhere around 180. >> you're pretty good at this math stuff! >> how many months have 28 days? >> all of them. >> good! [ laughter ] >> see. thank you for laughing.
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see, i get -- i get other people to say only february. >> i wish that was the first time i had heard that. >> you didn't even have an answer. you were afraid to answer. >> i was just shaking my head. >> my point is that we don't know the veeps. we don't know geopolitical things. we don't know foot in mouth things. we don't know comey things. we don't know -- we don't know a lot of things. >> susan, we don't know how to predict and how to estimate the number of people from each party that are choosing to identify with the other party because of one thing or another that each candidate has said. how do we predict that? >> well, i would caution against going too far with this unpredictability in the sense that there are pretty reliably two parties in the united states. there is not some massive pool of millions of disaffected white male democrats who are suddenly going to switch. as somebody pointed out, the reagan democrats actually haven't been democrats for a long time.
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they've been voting republican for a long time. >> we have more gdp numbers. .5 in the last one. a stock market that we don't know whether it's tired or if it's ready to head becoack high. a lot of things can change in six months. as i said, i don't know. they can't find this guy's emails, the guy who actually set up the server? they've disappeared. even if justice doesn't bring anything, you don't know what the fbi might say if they decide not to pursue it at all. there could be a saturday-night massacre. a lot of stuff could still happen, don't you think? >> you can predict any kind of unpredictable thing. the email situation doesn't look headed in that direction at this point. that is probably not a fair thing to predict. >> you want to list a few others things -- >> a lot of things can happen. >> potentially making you feel better? >> i am not convinced -- you saw
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gunlach. >> a lot of things could happen and donald trump has positioned himself to do well if they happen. terrorist attacks. trouble with iran. if the economy takes a sharp turn for the worse that usually hurts the incumbent. >> it's not me. shelby is talking now. i didn't message her on snapchat. >> she is right. you don't want to predict the unpredictable. look how they've set themselves up to capture the benefits. >> thank you, susan and thank you, shelby. >> thank you. >> no thanks to you, wapner. coming up, will the force be with disney? the dow component reporting quarterly results. the things investors should watch next. check out the dollar as we head out to break this morning. $1.13. ♪ we like that. not just because we're doers. because at sheraton, we're changing. big things.
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small things. spur of the moment things. ♪ changes you'll notice. wherever you are in the world. changes you'll notice. prge! a manufacturer. well that's why i dug this out for you. it's your grandpappy's hammer and he would have wanted you to have it. it meant a lot to him... yes, ge makes powerful machines.
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but i'll be writing the code that will allow those machines to share information with each other. i'll be changing the way the world works. (interrupting) you can't pick it up, can you? go ahead. he can't lift the hammer. it's okay though! you're going to change the world.
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welcome back to "squawk box." stocks to watch. lumber liquidators missing the mark. same store sales falling 13.9% compared with the same period last year. dean foods earnings beating the street. the company buying the manufacturing and retail ice cream business of friendly's ice
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cream for $155 million in cash. hasbro down graded to neutral from overweight at piper jaffray. analysts say the stock is fairly priced heading into a time of year that's traditionally offseason for the toy industry. stamps.com posting better than expected earnings. the internet posted service raising its full-year outlook as it continues to successfully integrate recent acquisitions. that stock today up 18%. scott. kayla, on the economic calendar today, march wholesale trade and the job openings and labor turnover survey. or jolts, at 10:00 a.m. in earnings central we'll here from electronics arts and disney after the bell. to l.a. right now. julia boorstin joins us with a preview of what to expect from disney tonight. >> reporter: disney is riding high in the record-breaking success of captain america civil war the past weekend following the studio's success with
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zootopia and the force awakens. expected to bolster the second quarter results. domestic strength is expected to outweigh weakness in europe and hong kong, but it's the median networks in espn in particular that will really be in focus amid questions about how much ad strength will outweigh subscriber declines. ceo's bob iger's bullish comments about the company's potential that helped the stock rally 20% from a bottom in february. analysts expect revenue to grow 6% to $13.2 billion while earnings per share are expected to grow to $1.14. another hot topic we can expect on the earnings call, succession plans for bob iger. it's been a month since tom staggs announced his departure. back over to you. >> julia, thanks. coming up, we'll have some squawk sports news.
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scott, you really are happy about it. you were a nationals fan too, right? >> capitals. >> i am from there, but i -- baseball i am a dodger fan. >> a lot of people bleed dodger blue. washington nationals reportedly locking up pitcher stephen strasburg. details about the $175 million wapner-like cnbc deal next. the return of steph curry. overtime performance for the ages. it took 40 points and overtime to win. we bring you the highlights next. we needed 30 new hires for our call center. i'm spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. (announcer) need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over 100 of the web's leading job boards with a single click. then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list.
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you put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. makes my job a lot easier. (announcer) over 400,000 businesses have already used ziprecruiter. and now you can use ziprecruiter for free. go to ziprecruiter.com/offer6
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time now for squawk sports. in nba news steph curry is back. the warriors' star returning last night for game four of the team's playoff series. this time against the portland trail blazers. he had been out of action for two weeks after spraining his knee. the warriors won 132-125 in overtime to go up 3-1 in the series. curry scored a game-high 40 points with 17 of those points coming in overtime. that's a new nba record for regular season, postseason. >> paul allen. >> good shot. i saw on twitter it said the expression is just priceless. the mouth open, watching that happen. >> he is incredible. even greg brown was saying, steph curry didn't play last night. he did. and he blew it out of the water. he is expected to be named to the nba's most valuable player
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for the second straight season. the 28-year-old would be the third point guard to win bacteria mvps. joining the likes of magic johnson and steve nash. pretty good company to be in, i would say. >> mm-hmm. mm-hmm. >> to throw it in from that far out is not easy. have you tried lately? >> no, i have not. >> define "lately." >> i have tried lately. if i hit any part of the rim it should count, from out there. >> you talking about the three-point line? >> yeah. >> i have tried that. i thought you were talking about half-court. >> that's a steph curry three-pointer is half-court. >> you can throw it in there? >> no. if i hit the rim it counts. if we play horse or pig. >> you did that recently? >> i did. >> when was that? >> i didn't always -- >> kernen house rules. >> i need a lower basket, number one, and a smaller court or half-court. >> is there evidence of this? >> i am telling you i never -- none of them went in.
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i was happy if they hit the rimm. >> i just want to see what you look like when you're shooting. >> it's not funny. coming up, alan krueger and ed lazear debate the true obama jobs records. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. ew friends. amazing is getting this close. real is an animal rescue. amazing is over twenty-seven thousand of them. there is only one place where real and amazing live. seaworld. real. amazing
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♪ we'll have a house party, we don't need nobody ♪ ♪ turn your tv off, break that boom box out ♪ ♪ welcome back to "squawk box." it is 8:30 on the east coast. here is what's making headlines this morning. supermarket operator kroger hiring 14,000 new permanent employees. it's making a concerted push to find workers, holding open interviews in all of its stores this-coming saturday. a fresh read on the labor market, out later this morning, the labor department will release its so-called jolts report, the monthly measure of job opportunities and labor turnover. it's also the favorite of one of our upcoming guests. that steve will be talking to. ed lazear. >> he loves jolts.
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>> loves jolts. white wave foods is one of this morning's early stock winners. the packaged food company which was once part, if you haven't heard of it, once part of dean foods. reported adjusted quarterly profit of 28 cents a share, two cents above estimates. revenue also beating forecasts and the company increased its 2016 earnings outlook. you know that high-test milk is back, right, wapner? >> high-test milk? >> the full-fat milk. you're allowed to have that now. it's better in coffee. there is no reason to go with the skim or 2%. >> i read some stuff about don't bother with the skim. >> no! why would you if you didn't have to? you can see through it. it's gross. >> have you tried the bullet proof coffee with grass-fed butter? >> that's amazing. but i am kind of opposed to the whole grass-fed -- i mean, butter stuff. what -- what does that do, i forget, there is something good about it. >> it has the good bacteria in it. >> for your gut? >> yeah. >> ever had a grass-fed steak?
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>> i may have. i don't -- i don't know. how about you? >> well, yeah. had it. >> you act like it's -- >> i've just had it. >> do you like it? should i have that? >> sure. >> should i insist on that. >> any excuse for a steak. >> free-range cabbage pulled gently from the ground so it doesn't go "ow!" >> what about a free range vegetables? they can't walk, usually. >> free range vegetables. >> free range cabbage. you don't want them tense when they get pulled out of the ground. >> i had a can of seltzer water last week that was gluten free and nongmo. i kid you not. can't make it up. >> why not put it on the label. >> just in case people care. president obama's record on jobs sparks bitter debate from both sides and promises to be a critical issue in the upcoming election. steve liesman joins us to drill down into the obama jobs record.
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>> that's a great segue from gmo-free seltzer to the obama jobs records. one side says the country has made lots of improvement though there is work to do. the other calling it disaster. the democrats point to 11 million jobs and an unemployment rate more than three percentage points lower than when president obama took office. hold on. republicans point to the record. 94 million americans now out of the work force. stagnant wages and 5.8 million americans working part-time for economic reasons, about two million above normal. you notice there was three points on each side. right dead even there. which side has it right? let's bring in two of the nation's leading labor economists. alan krueger, former chairman of the council of economic advisors under president obama and ed lazear who served in the same
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role under president george w. bush. they both have written pieces that appear on cnbc.com. i asked both to write short pieces with aone graph. alan followed the rule but eddie went off with eight charts and a book attached to it. alan, starting with you. make the case. you say the job market has mostly recovered. what do you look at and what's the evidence? >> first of all, steve, i think you have to look at where things were in 2008, 2009. we were losing 700,000 jobs a month at that time. the economy is now for six years straight added private sector jobs, almost 15 million jobs added in that time period. the unemployment rate fell from 10% down to 5%. we are seeing wages grow, a little over 3% so far this year, over the last 12 months. nominal wages up 2.5%. and after inflation real wages are growing again. not everything is better than it
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was. certainly long-term unemployment remains too high. as you mentioned, there are a more workers working part-time for economic reasons who would prefer full-time jobs than one would expect. so i wouldn't say that the job market has fully recovered, but it has unambiguously made big improvements since -- since the recession, and i would also add, we're not going to see some of the scars that were created during the recession heal. that's the nature of recessions. i think we can look forward to the job market continuing to improve, and as long as we build on that record, i think some of the scars will start to fade away. >> eddie, that's a pretty strong case. tell me why you think there is still -- reading your piece i get the sense you think there is substantial work left to be done here. >> well, i do, although i hate to disappoint you. i think alan and i are more in agreement than we are in disagreement. i would also have to say that i think we're far -- far better
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than we were a few years ago. the labor market has come back and come back significantly. my take on it, though, is that we're simply not back. we are not recovered, and we still have a ways to go. and that's fine. you know, i think that it's -- i am an optimist. i like to have high aspirations. let me tell you a little bit about why i think we're not quite back to where we should be. as alan points out, the unemployment rate is down to 5%. most people don't take that unemployment rate as being indicative of what we would have had say pre-2007. i did a piece a few months ago where i estimated the equivalent unemployment rate is 5.9% in today's terms. so we're not quite back. the main numbers -- four numbers i look at. you mentioned that i went off on your graphs. let me give you a couple. the most important number, i think, from most labor economies' point of view is the unemployment rate. number of jobs, number of people working relative to the working
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age population. the employment rate is down significantly from its previous peak. 63.5% and now 60%. part of it is demographics. the best way to do it is to look at the working age population. >> what we are looking at here is the employment rate of right in the working age population, 25 to 54. that shows that it has not recovered to where it was. i want to cut you off, eddie, and get alan's response. >> he was just getting to the best point he was trying to make. >> it's a great point. we have it up on the chart. i'll let him go, joe. >> just one more. what was the final part of that thought, ed? finish it for me. >> yeah. the final part was that, if anything, you would expect that the demographic effect would actually drive the employment rate up for that group, not down, because when the older guys leave the market there is more demand for the middle-age guys. so that's -- that's. >> we always hear people are just retiring --
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>> to me, of all the points eddie made, he made a lot and there were good ones but this stood out to me. if the job market was really back where it was you would have the 25 to 54 group. alan, i want you to respond to that. that's a very strong point as to why the job market has not recovered. >> i think it's an important point, but i would also say, many economists believe the unemployment rate is the single best indicator of how the labor market is doing. that's a point to ben bernanke made in 2013. i wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the unemployment rate. when you look at the employment, the population rate, there are couple important things to keep in mind. first of all, the employment rate for prime-age workers was declining in the last recovery as well. it didn't reach the point, the same level it had reached in 2000 at the end of the recovery from the 2001 recession. so there is a secular trend that's been taking place, particularly for male workers who have been leaving the labor force. that's been taking place since
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the end of world war ii. what we saw beginning in 2001, which i think is a problem, i think it's a problem that predates the current recovery -- >> all right. alan i need to cut you off on that. i want to get eddie to respond. eddie, because it's television, you can go off on dot-com, but on tv. give me your response. he says the trend was in existence before obama took office. >> that may be true to some extent. for the most part i think it is not. if you look at the pre2000 numbers, the reason the employment rate was higher then was the unemployment rate was down to 3.9%, and the previous peak, and it was at 4.4% here. that's consistent with that. i don't think that's a big deal. the other number i would point to, steve, to get you on a different topic, is the hires rate. you mentioned that i love jolts in the lead-in, and i do. one of the big problems that we're still seeing is that
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hiring is not back to where it should be. there is some trend in that number as well. i agree with alan on that. but most of it is not trend. most is the fact that we are simply not hiring quite at the rate we should be were we at full recovery. i want to reiterate. i think alan and i are primarily in agreement because we do believe that we have recovered much of the way. where we disagree is i simply think we have a ways to go and that we can still get there. >> let's leave it there. you guys have both agreed to keep doing this. we want to do next -- we sort of hopefully established the data bottom line. we'll get to policies next, what can and should be done by either person to bring it back. next time we'll reverse it and eddie will go first and alan will go second. >> as i was listening, i hear governors say i created these jobs. the president says i created all these -- the private sector creates the jobs. >> not if you are a politician, joe. >> i know, but there are things that might, i guess, induce some
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private sector job creation. what you really can do is hamper private sector job growth. >> if you would just get out of the way, it's going to happen either way. >> we had limited time because you guys went off on human growth hormones ahead of time. we'll come back and do the issue on policies -- >> you mean gmos. >> gmo and grass fed. >> that was the actual conversation. it wasn't human growth hormone. >> whatever it was. we have to go. thank you to eddie. thank you to alan. we'll keep this debate going. guys who were on different sides but closer than you might think. great, steve. [ laughter ] coming up, squawk heads to the soccer field. star hope solo joins us. how the two-time gold medalist is chasing her goal for women's equality in sports. that's next. ♪
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coming up, two-time olympic gold medalist hope solo is here. we'll talk business, soccer and getting ready for brazil. futures, off the highs of the morning. dow opens at 78 points. "squawk box" will be right back. this car?
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squawk sports news. washington nationals starting pitcher stephen strasburg reportedly reached a deal. seven years, $175 million. >> wow! >> nice. official announcement is expected later today. what a great country. >> especially with the career and the injuries that he has had. >> right. >> i hope they have money left for bryce harper. that's all i am saying. >> so you are a nationals fan.
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>> yeah. i follow them. >> okay. >> hope they do well. >> they are doing well. i am looking for a new team. >> just got swept by the cubs, i think. >> the reds. >> the reds -- i am not mad at the reds. >> will you give up the reds? >> no. i did that to the bengals. i won't do it to the reds. >> good man. with less than three months to go before the 2016 summer olympics, we have a special guest this morning. a two-time olympic gold medal t medalist. she joins us to talk about business on and off the field. hope solo is here to talk about her latest partnership with protein bar company and with her lauren fine gold, co-founder of shanti bars. apparently a number of these bars were created by you and your business partner.
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created by women. are the bars specifically for women as well? >> no. they are actually for everyone. just created by women, operated actually also our facility by women. but enjoyed by all consumers from the youngest of kids to the oldest of grandparents. >> as i said, i have a number of them in front of me. they're all plant-based protein. raw, paleo, gluten, non-gmo, 100% organic. how competitive is this space now? >> it's super competitive. however, we're disrupting the category by bringing superfoods to the masses. nutrients andigh protein. this is a very convenient way for people to get their nutrients and protein in a functional food snack that's also delicious. >> hope, how did you get involved? >> well, i have to admit at this point in my career i'm very selective about who i want to do business with. and the -- you know, the bars
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themselves are incredible. they're 100% raw, vegan, organic, filled with super foods. so, of course, it helps me on the more importantly, i mean, these are women i wanted to do business with because they're very intelligent. they're very dedicated. and they're two women running this company that i just want to support and get behind because i really believe in what they're doing. and i believe it's going to be a successful partnership. >> yeah, you've had partnerships with nike, gatorade, bank of america, but this in fact is your first partnership with a female-owned start-up. >> yeah, you know, everything that's been going on this past year, fighting for womens rights, fighting for equality, it just makes sense to get behind these incredible, intelligent, busy savvy women. and this is truly what i'm passionate ability. and i believe they're going to make a difference in the sports world as well as in the health field. so it's what i want to be behind. and it makes perfect sense at this point in my career. >> how far are you and some of your teammates going to take the
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equal pay fight? how far are you willing to take it? >> i think it's pretty clear that we're willing to go as far as we need to go in order to push for womens rights and push for equality. you know, we've already filed a claim with the eeoc. and we're hoping to get a response with them within the next six months. >> you know, i'd love to talk to you a little bit about the olympics as well as you look forward to rio and some of the issues that are not only a part of the getting ready stage for the brazilians but also zika and how you're feeling about it today following comments you made some months ago that you were reconsidering whether you would go or not. your position on that, i believe, has changed to say that you will go. but it sounds a little begrudgingly that you'll make that trip knowing some of the risks that are involved. >> yeah. i strongly believe that no athlete should be put into this position to decide between your
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olympic dreams and your own health. so begrudgingly i think is a good way to put it. i'm very excited for the olympics. it's never been done where we've won the world cup and then backed it with an olympic championship. so, you know, i'm always a competitor first. i want to set a new standard, i want to break records. and it's never been done. so of course i want to go to the olympics and win the olympic gold, at the same time i'm very worried about my health, all my fans coming, friends and family member who is are coming and it's something to be aware of and i'm going to take every precaution necessary. i'm not sure i'm going to be leaving the hotel room outside of practice. so it is something. >> i'm sorry. is there any chance you would change your mind again? could anything happen between now and then that would prevent you from actually making that trip? >> well, you know, i've committed to going. i've sat down and spoke with my coach, i talked to my teammates. i'm very committed in going, but
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like i said, you know, i'm going to be very aware of any new studies that come out. i've been doing my own due diligence speaking with different doctors, with health inspectors, so i'm doing everything i can to be fully aware of any situation that may come. so i guess ultimately you never know what's going to happen. >> lauren, these bars that you've created cost, what, about $3? $2.99, where can i find them and how difficult is it to get your product even with an ambassador like hope solo on board into mainstream retailers. >> absolutely. you can always buy them online at ashanti.bar. right now we're going through the process of submission into all of the, you know, natural chain grocers as well as mass market, the product is awesome and speaks for itself. and now with the likes of our
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great partner here, hope, we really are planning on breaking through and penetrating and getting our high quality product into the hands of all consumers. >> is whole foods the holy grail for you? is that the kind of thing we're talking about? >> it is. whole foods is definitely where the product needs to be, it should be, the whole foods consumer wants it. everyone that buys our bars asks when is it going to be in whole foods, so we hope with hope they'll be in whole foods soon. >> i hear you. good luck to you both. hope, good luck this summer as well. >> thank you very much. >> hope solo, lauren feingold. let's get to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us. we had trouble holding onto our gains, up over a hundred today, oil got weak and again our gains are cut in half. so we're still on that train, kind of? >> yeah, that's all that matters. i wish i could say there was something else that matters, i wish i could say there are
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numbers, companies that could do something to change it. obviously oil exacerbates when it's down, exacerbates whenever negative. but when oil goes up everything is pretty rosy. the drug stocks do well when oil goes up, consumer stocks do well, a lot of the companies that do quite poorly with higher oil they act really amazingly. so, look, it's an allegheny -- algorithm, the market can be stupid for a very, very long time and we're really captured by stupidity. >> and the rationale is it's just a proxy for global growth, is that -- >> exactly. that's all it is. so when oil goes up, we can bo buy freeport, but we are also able to buy pretty much any company that's consumer package goods because those go up with the s&p. so, i mean, we're in the grips of a moment here, joe, where it really doesn't matter what we do. we should be oil pumps. you can be exxon, i'll -- you
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know, i don't know, be chevron. we'll just pump. >> i wouldn't ask you if i didn't, you know, know you and watch your show. so inven sense, what is it, how does it work? do you know that company? >> i don't know. idti is sensing things you theoretically use your iphone and find out whether there's a carbon dioxide leak. there's a lot of stuff coming down which is about smell and taste and feel that is not -- that is distance projected, barometer, temperature, you know, i just point d at you i get your temperature. >> wow. and did you determine that i was hot? >> yes. you came in hot. and scott wapner i tell you is 108 during that interview with the candy bar there -- i mean the health bar. 112, 108, i was using my iphone, scott, you're off the charts. >> on fire. jim, thanks. >> that's like hospitalization
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levels right there. 108. >> it is. >> coming up, the morning's biggest stock movers, "squawk box" will be right back. trugreen presents the yardley's. sfx: leaf blower dad! sorry. spring is on. start your trugreen lawn plan today. trugreen. live life outside. this just got interesting. why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph,
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like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas for pulmonary hypertension, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis and a $200 savings card i'm spending too muchs for time hiringnter. stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. and not enough time in my kitchen. (announcer) need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over 100 of the web's leading job boards with a single click. then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. you put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. makes my job a lot easier. (announcer) over 400,000 businesses have already used ziprecruiter. and now you can use ziprecruiter for free. go to ziprecruiter.com/offer6
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turning up the haet in burger wars, all-time highs from mcdonald's. what's on the menu to deliver even more for investors? "squawk on the street" today on cnbc. good. good for you. stamps.com soaring. earnings handily beating the street. the internet posted service
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raising its full year outlook as well. kayla, thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> you represent that entire group of people in a very positive way for me. >> you say that now. >> i say that now. and i'll see you tomorrow. >> tomorrow's another day. >> make sure you join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ it's a beautiful day good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange. premarkets high coming off the second biggest volume day of the year. a lot of earnings to get to today. allerg allergan, gap, disney tonight, misses estimates second month in the row to the downside. nikkei higher on some yen weakness helping to support oil as
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